Tyler Allgeier Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (26.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.5% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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