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Tylan Wallace

Tylan Wallace Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Tylan Wallace Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-1900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1900.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 132.7 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
  • This year, the weak Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a monstrous 1.11 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing WRs: the 8th-worst rate in football.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.33 per game) against the Browns defense this year.
  • The Browns defensive ends grade out as the best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • The model projects the Ravens as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most run-focused offense in football in the red zone (48.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
  • The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
  • The weather report calls for 24-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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