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Tyjae Spears

Tyjae Spears Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Tyjae Spears Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -390 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -400.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Tennessee Titans.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 133.3 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
  • With a sizeable 17.9% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • Tyjae Spears's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 89th percentile for running backs.
  • Tyjae Spears profiles as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, catching an impressive 91.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Titans this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.
  • Tyjae Spears has posted a puny -7.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Tyjae Spears's trading card this year.

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