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Tyjae Spears

Tyjae Spears Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-113/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Titans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 66.7% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • The Colts defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.
  • The projections expect Tyjae Spears to accrue 3.2 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are projected by the projections to call just 61.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Tennessee Titans have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.4 plays per game.
  • Tyjae Spears's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 91.2% to 77.2%.
  • This year, the strong Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a mere 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in football.

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