|
|
Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-104/+103).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +103.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The Titans are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.55 seconds per play.Tyjae Spears has run a route on 41.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.In this game, Tyjae Spears is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets.Tyjae Spears ranks as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
At the moment, the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Titans.Tyjae Spears's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 91.2% to 87.0%.This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has surrendered a mere 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the smallest rate in football.When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
