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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+850/-1100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1050 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • When it comes to air yards, Ty Johnson ranks in the towering 90th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a colossal 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Ty Johnson has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among running backs (1st percentile).
  • This year, the feeble Chiefs defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Ty Johnson's 5.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 11.0.
  • Ty Johnson's 34.1% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 76.0% figure.

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