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Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+740/-800).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -800.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.Ty Johnson has totaled a massive 3.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.Ty Johnson has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among running backs (1st percentile).Since the start of last season, the shaky Falcons pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 88.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the biggest rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.Ty Johnson's 5.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 11.0.Ty Johnson rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, catching a mere 69.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 20th percentile.
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