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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+660/-780).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -880 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -780.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

Out of all RBs this year, Ty Johnson grades out in the lowly 1st percentile for red zone carries, accounting for 0.0% of the volume in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.

When talking about air yards, Ty Johnson grades out in the lofty 88th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

With a bad 69.0% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Ty Johnson stands among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to running backs.

The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on Ty Johnson's stats page this year.

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