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Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+540/-650).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -710 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Ty Johnson has received a measly 0.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 1st percentile among RBs.With an elite 14.3% Red Zone Target Rate (91st percentile) this year, Ty Johnson has been among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage near the goal line in football.When it comes to air yards, Ty Johnson ranks in the towering 99th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 11.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.Ty Johnson ranks in the 88th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 0.16 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.Ty Johnson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a mere 70.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
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