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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+520/-720).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +660 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +520.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.
  • Ty Johnson's 80.1% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a substantial improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 76.1% figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • Ty Johnson has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (-2.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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