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Ty Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-107/-117).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -107.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to run on 45.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.With a terrific tally of 5.50 adjusted yards per carry (91st percentile), Ty Johnson places among the top running backs in the NFL since the start of last season.The Patriots defensive ends project as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.This year, the tough New England Patriots run defense has yielded a measly 79.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-fewest in football.
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