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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Ty Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-205/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Ty Johnson's 5.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 11.0.
  • With a feeble 0.3 adjusted catches per game (8th percentile) this year, Ty Johnson ranks among the bottom running backs in the pass game in the NFL.

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