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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Ty Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, New Orleans's unit has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

With a mere 0.3 adjusted catches per game (12th percentile) this year, Ty Johnson rates as one of the bottom running backs in the pass game in football.

With a feeble 69.0% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Ty Johnson has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs.

More Ty Johnson Player Props

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