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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Ty Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
  • The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 8th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
  • Ty Johnson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a mere 70.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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