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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Ty Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Houston's group of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most sluggish paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • Ty Johnson has been one of the weakest pass-game running backs this year, averaging a lowly 0.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile among RBs.
  • Ty Johnson's 67.6% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a meaningful decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 76.1% figure.

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