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Ty Johnson

Ty Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Ty Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

Ty Johnson has totaled a staggering 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

With a remarkable 10.9 adjusted yards per target (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Ty Johnson places as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

Ty Johnson's 2.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a material reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 18.0 figure.

With a feeble 69.0% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Ty Johnson has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs.

More Ty Johnson Player Props

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