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Ty Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-395/+120).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -400 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -395.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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When it comes to air yards, Ty Johnson ranks in the towering 99th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 11.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.Ty Johnson has been one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, averaging a stellar 11.40 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 96th percentile.With a remarkable 9.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (87th percentile) last year, Ty Johnson rates as one of the best pass-catching running backs in football in the open field.Since the start of last season, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a monstrous 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 6th-most in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.Ty Johnson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a mere 70.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
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