T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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T.Y. Hilton

NFL · Player Props

T.Y. Hilton

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 17, 2022

Updated Dec 30, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

T.Y. Hilton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the league.
T.Y. Hilton has earned a whopping 20.0% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among WRs.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (196.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (69.6%) versus WRs this year (69.6%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects T.Y. Hilton to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense this week (5.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).
T.Y. Hilton has been among the worst wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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