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Tutu Atwell

Tutu Atwell Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Tutu Atwell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+760/-960).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +790 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +760.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (65.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Rams.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • This year, the feeble Falcons defense has conceded a whopping 1.20 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the worst rate in football.
  • This year, the strong Falcons run defense has yielded a meager 0.73 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Rams are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • Tutu Atwell has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 2.0% this year, which ranks in the 19th percentile among WRs.
  • Tutu Atwell has compiled far fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (42.0 per game).
  • Tutu Atwell's 10.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 28.5.

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