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Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tucker Kraft Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Tucker Kraft has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

In regards to air yards, Tucker Kraft grades out in the lofty 77th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a staggering 24.0 per game.

Tucker Kraft's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 27.6.

Tucker Kraft's 86.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his receiving skills over last season's 78.5% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Packers have been the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 52.0% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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