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Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-230).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.6% red zone pass rate.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

Tucker Kraft has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.1% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Tucker Kraft has notched a massive 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among TEs.

Tucker Kraft's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 79th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Packers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.3 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.

Since the start of last season, the shaky Dallas Cowboys run defense has been gouged for a massive 1.45 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the biggest rate in the league.

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