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Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Tucker Kraft Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+147/-154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +147.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

In this game, Tucker Kraft is projected by the model to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.7 targets.

Tucker Kraft's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 27.6.

Tucker Kraft checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Tucker Kraft's 86.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant gain in his receiving skills over last season's 78.5% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.

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