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Tua Tagovailoa Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2500/-6750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -6750.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a giant 8-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Miami Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile).

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 52.4 per game on average).

This week, Tua Tagovailoa is predicted by the projection model to have the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.5.

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.9 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10