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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-285/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the top TD passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 1.57 per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.
  • The Browns defense has been gouged for the 7th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 49.8 plays per game.
  • The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Miami Dolphins ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

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