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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +131 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Washington Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the anemic Commanders defense has yielded a staggering 2.20 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-biggest rate in football.
  • The Washington cornerbacks profile as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Tua Tagovailoa's throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 73.5% to 68.2%.

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