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Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.At the moment, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (60.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.The Dolphins have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 37.0 throws per game this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among QBs.Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 69.6% to 74.5%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 122.2 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.This year, the strong 49ers defense has conceded a meager 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.The 49ers defense has given up the 9th-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.21 per game this year.When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in football.
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