Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 64.0% to 72.0%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 6th-fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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