Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a substantial growth in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.0% mark.
With an exceptional rate of 1.85 per game (87th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD throwers in football this year.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With a 48.4% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the league in this setting has been the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.

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