Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa's 70.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% rate.
With an impressive ratio of 2.00 per game (95th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best TD throwers in the league this year.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a monstrous 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With a 49.1% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the least pass-focused offense in the league in this regard has been the Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.

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