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Tua Tagovailoa
NFL · Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Miami Dolphins
TD Passes
Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023 Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Favors Over
  • Tua Tagovailoa's 70.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% rate.
  • With an impressive ratio of 2.00 per game (95th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best TD throwers in the league this year.
  • This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a monstrous 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.
Favors Under
  • The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 49.1% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the least pass-focused offense in the league in this regard has been the Dolphins.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
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