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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 61.3% red zone pass rate.

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.2% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.

Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 2.00 per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

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