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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • At the moment, the 10th-most run-centric team in football (40.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New Orleans's DT corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in football. in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
  • The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to garner 2.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs.
  • Taking on a mere 4.6% of his offense's run game usage this year (15th percentile among QBs), Tua Tagovailoa's lack of speed makes him no threat in the run game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a mere 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (8th percentile).
  • Tua Tagovailoa's running efficiency has diminished this year, compiling just 2.69 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.30 figure last year.

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