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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins rank as the 8th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.5% run rate.
  • The opposing side have run for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (133 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Tua Tagovailoa is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 9th-fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 2.1.
  • Comprising a lowly 5.3% of his offense's rush attempts this year (16th percentile when it comes to QBs), Tua Tagovailoa's one-dimensionality makes him no threat on the ground.

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