Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).
Tua Tagovailoa's running effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.41 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.35 mark last year.
This year, the stout Raiders run defense has given up a puny 5.03 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 28th-lowest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 0.36 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
The Las Vegas defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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