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Tua Tagovailoa
NFL · Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Miami Dolphins
Rushing Yards
Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2024 Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:31 PM EST
NFL Props Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -121.

Favors Over
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).
  • Tua Tagovailoa's running effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.41 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.35 mark last year.
  • This year, the stout Raiders run defense has given up a puny 5.03 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 28th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 0.36 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
  • The Las Vegas defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
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