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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 220.5 (-105/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 219.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 220.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Dolphins, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 61.8% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.7 per game) this year.
  • Opposing offenses have passed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (272.0 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
  • This year, the poor Baltimore Ravens defense has conceded a monstrous 76.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (just 51.8 per game on average).
  • The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to throw 31.7 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the worst in football this year.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many fewer adjusted yards per game (175.0) this season than he did last season (268.0).

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