Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 273.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 274.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the leading QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 271.0 yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 64.0% to 72.0%.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 3rd-fewest yards in the league (just 201.0 per game) against the Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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