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Tua Tagovailoa Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-135).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 39.2 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
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