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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Carries
Player Prop Week 14

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • With a 42.2% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most run-centric offense in the league has been the Dolphins.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, New York's DE corps has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to accumulate 2.2 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is not much of a rusher and has accounted for a lowly 4.8% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 17th percentile among QBs.

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