My Account Log Out
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-116/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins rank as the 8th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.5% run rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the model to run just 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 51.7 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • In this game, Tua Tagovailoa is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 10th-fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 2.1.
  • Comprising a lowly 5.3% of his offense's rush attempts this year (16th percentile when it comes to QBs), Tua Tagovailoa's one-dimensionality makes him no threat on the ground.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™