Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football last year at blocking for the run game.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's group of safeties has been lousy this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run on 36.3% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to accrue 2.9 carries in this game, on average: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.

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