Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 35.8% run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to total 2.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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