Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
As it relates to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
The Titans defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL (36.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
In racking up a feeble 1.6 rush attempts per game this year, Tua Tagovailoa ranks among the bottom QBs in the NFL (24th percentile) when it comes to rushing usage.

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