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Treylon Burks

Treylon Burks Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Treylon Burks Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+730/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Commanders, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 9th-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
  • The projections expect Treylon Burks to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's game (12.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.0% in games he has played).
  • The Eagles safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (48.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
  • Treylon Burks rates as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, completing just 47.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 12th percentile among WRs
  • This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a puny 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in football.
  • This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed a measly 0.43 passing TDs per game to opposing WRs: the 2nd-best rate in football.

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