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Trey Palmer

Trey Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 64.0% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 129.8 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 56.4 per game on average).

While Trey Palmer has accounted for 11.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Tampa Bay's passing attack in this game at 6.5%.

Trey Palmer has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a measly 57.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile among WRs

The Lions linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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