Trey Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Trey Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
This year, the poor 49ers pass defense has given up a whopping 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 5th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Trey Palmer grades out as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 55.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 11th percentile among wide receivers
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.