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Trey McBride

Trey McBride Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Trey McBride Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.
  • The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.
  • With an extraordinary 32.0% Red Zone Target% (99th percentile) this year, Trey McBride has been among the TEs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
  • Trey McBride's 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 79.2% figure.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most TDs in the league (1.20 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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