Trey McBride Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to garner 7.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Trey McBride has been much more involved in his team's air attack this year (17.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (7.2%).
After accumulating 16.0 air yards per game last season, Trey McBride has shown good development this season, now averaging 37.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Steelers pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) to TEs this year (69.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, yielding 6.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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