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Trey Lance

Trey Lance TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Trey Lance TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chargers may throw the ball less this week (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Trey Lance.
  • At a -15.5-point disadvantage, the Chargers are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 61.8% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • With a 59.4% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league in this regard has been the Chargers.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 131.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Trey Lance checks in as one of the least on-target QBs in football since the start of last season with a 58.3% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 15th percentile.
  • The passing TD line reads "0" on Trey Lance's stats page this year.
  • This year, the stout Broncos defense has yielded a mere 66.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-best rate in the league.
  • The Broncos defense has allowed the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.12 per game this year.

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