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Trevor Siemian

Trevor Siemian TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

Trevor Siemian TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Trevor Siemian.

This week's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are huge -7-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Jets to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.2% red zone pass rate.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call 66.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Browns, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

With a lackluster 51.2% Adjusted Completion% (8th percentile) this year, Trevor Siemian ranks among the least on-target QBs in football.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest level in football versus the Browns defense this year (61.4% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Cleveland's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the league.

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