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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
  • In registering a massive 33.1 pass attempts per game this year, Trevor Lawrence places among the top quarterbacks in football (82nd percentile) by this metric.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • With a poor 59.2% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the least on-target passers in football.

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