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Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -166.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Since the start of last season, the feeble Houston Texans defense has conceded a monstrous 1.79 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-largest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Trevor Lawrence's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy decline in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.2% figure.

Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.

More Trevor Lawrence Player Props

Trevor Lawrence TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3