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Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+117/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -149.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 128.9 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.

In this week's contest, Trevor Lawrence is projected by the predictive model to have the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.9.

The Jacksonville O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.

Trevor Lawrence's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy decline in his passing accuracy over last season's 61.2% figure.

Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.

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